College Basketball’s Fiddler Crabs
Teams that are disproportionately better on one side of the ball than the other, and how they have performed in March (plus Eliminator Update!)
Every year, we have a good number of top 25 teams who are much stronger on one side of the ball than the other. I call these teams Fiddler Crab Teams. Much like a fiddler crab, you can tell which side is stronger by just looking. For example, take Iowa. Just about every year the Hawkeyes have a top ten offense with a defense ranked somewhere between 50-70. Everyone who has watched Iowa play basketball over the last 10 years has observed this.
A good way to corroborate what your eyes are telling you when you watch these types of teams teams is by looking at two Kenpom numbers: Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjOE) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjDE). For our purposes, we have defined a fiddler crab team as a team ranking in the top 20 in either one of AdjOE/AdjDE, and ranking 50+ in the other.
Here are this season’s fiddler crabs, so far:
Stats as of Jan. 4, 2023:
*Tennessee is included because their AdjOE was 50+ all season until last night, when they beat the crap out of Mississippi State.
Like (most) of the teams listed above, Fiddler Crab Teams have historically shown to be good regular season teams, letting their one strength overwhelm opponents to a strong record. But how have these teams performed in March? I have dug up (get it?) every Fiddler Crab Team that received a 5 seed or better since 2002 and mapped their March success.
It's…not great. Take a look:
A couple of notes:
112 teams were included; 40 were top 3-seeds, 30 were 4-seeds, and 42 were 5-seeds.
24 of the 42 5-seeds that met this criteria lost in the first round. Eight more lost in the Round of 32. Only one made it past the Sweet Sixteen (Arizona, 2011).
10 of the 14 2-seeds that met this criteria were out before the Sweet Sixteen.
The four Fiddler Crab teams to make the Final Four: ‘03 Marquette, ‘12 Louisville, ‘13 Michigan, ‘14 Wisconsin.
Now let’s look at these numbers again, but just over the last 10 years:
Pretty similar, with only small differences in percentages.
What does all this mean for the teams listed above? Simple. First, try to avoid being a 5-seed. Second, at least be average with your off-claw if you want to succeed in March.
Championship Eliminator Update:
Brison eliminates: West Virginia.
The rationale? Trying to reverse jinx his team coming off two tough losses.
Luke eliminates: North Carolina.
The rationale? This team stinks at 3s. On January 4, 2022, UNC was shooting 40% from 3. This year? 30%. I can’t buy this team making a run like last year if they can’t hit 3s.
Brison’s remaining teams: Virginia, Purdue, Kansas, UConn, Marquette, UCLA, Arizona, Tennessee, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Houston, UK, Duke
Luke’s remaining teams: Virginia, Purdue, Texas, Baylor, UConn, UCLA, Arizona, UK, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Houston, Alabama, West Virginia