Destined For Mediocrity - 2024 Edition
Every single game of the 2024 NCAA Tournament, picked
It’s almost here! In a few short hours, the 2024 NCAA Tournament will begin, and all of us will be filled with joy…for at least a few hours until our favorite teams lose. But for now, all of our brackets are perfect.
With that in mind, here are my picks for the 2024 NCAA Tournament. I did not do great last year, but hey, who did?
I am changing up the format this season. Instead of a blurb for every single game, I am going to share an entire region, then explain my reasoning for all of the notable picks. As always, I will post a pic (ha!) of my own physical bracket at the bottom.
East Region
Boo Buie over UConn! Auburn to the Final Four! UAB over San Diego State! Let me explain.
First, I’m not a big believer in picking something to happen that has never happened before. In the 64-team era (since 1985), no team has repeated as champs without returning at least five players that averaged 20 minutes a game or more the previous season. Also, no defending champ (except 2007 Florida, who returned their entire starting lineup) has made it past the Sweet Sixteen since 2001. I originally picked UConn to lose to Auburn in the Sweet Sixteen, until I saw this EvanMiya tweet. Northwestern, Florida, and UAB rank the highest of all tournament teams when it comes to performing above expectations against strong competition. You know what Florida Atlantic and UConn are? That’s right—strong competition. So I decided to go for the home run and pick Northwestern to knock UConn off a round earlier. Boo Buie and co. already beat Purdue this year, so it isn’t like they haven’t beaten a great team yet. I also threw in UAB over San Diego State for good measure. The Aztecs are once again a fiddler crab team. It didn’t stop them last year, but I think it will this year.
Auburn is ranked 4th in KenPom. That’s 1-seed territory. I’ll go ahead and take them as a high value pick to the Final Four.
West Region
I went pretty chalk here, just taking California-based St. Mary’s over fledgling Alabama-based Alabama in Spokane. Geography aside, I would have taken them anyway. Bama doesn’t seem like they are interested in continuing their season.
I will go on record saying that either Arizona or UNC will win the title. I have picked Arizona here, but this was the toughest choice (other than the title game) that I made in the entire bracket. I also think this is probably the safest 1-2 Elite Eight matchup to pick of all the regionals.
South Region
Remember in the East region when I said Florida, Northwestern, and UAB all performed better against tough competition? I am banking here on Florida actually winning the first round game and pushing through to the Sweet Sixteen over a banged up Marquette squad (sorry, Shaka!). Then I went ahead and picked my 2nd worst doomsday scenario in the bracket: my favorite team in 7 years (this season’s UK team) losing to the freaking Duke Blue Devils for a trip to the Final Four. (Number 1 Nightmare Scenario: UK losing to Tennessee in the Final Four. Number 3 is the event of UK playing Tennessee in the Final Four Period).
Midwest Region
This region isn’t quite as chalk as the West. I have some type of weird subconscious love for the Oregon Ducks that makes me always pick them to the Sweet Sixteen. I like Creighton too, but my strange affection for green and yellow wins out. I made the Kansas upset pick before Bill Self announced Kevin McCullar was out for the tournament, but that definitely solidified my pick of Samford and Bucky-Ball. I’ve been impressed with Gonzaga since they thrashed my favorite team. Turns out I am high on the teams that beat UK this year. Weird. Oh yeah, Purdue to the Final Four. Boilers, if you screw this pick up for me again this year, you are dead to me.
Final Four
As you can see, I went back and forth over my final pick.
I’ve had a feeling Arizona was destined to meet Purdue in the championship game since December. I am trusting that instinct now.
Arizona has an issue playing down to their competition or just not showing up. That makes this a risky pick, since they have been known to flame out sooner than expected. I was very close to picking UNC over them in the West, except for one historic reason: the champion has come from the top 6 in KenPom 20 out of 23 times since KenPom became a thing. UNC is 9th, and that is a good enough reason to pick Arizona. Better than flipping a coin, after all. Also, Arizona has a top 10 offense. It’s pretty rare to see a champion that ranks outside of the top 20 in offensive efficiency win a title, and UNC ranks 24th.
Choosing Arizona allows me to keep my personal rule, “Never pick a Big Ten team to win the tournament.” I know the drought is longer for the Pac-12, but hey, Arizona is a Big 12 team now. And how hilarious would it be for a league that is about to go defunct to win the championship in the last season of their existence?
Arizona over Purdue in the final. Book it!*
*This is all going to be very wrong very soon. Enjoy March!!!