Prediction Tracker: 1/22/2025
Let's try something new...
Time for a joint venture this time. Luke has some predictions. Brison has some reactions.
Let's get started.
Auburn loses 5 more games this season but still wins the SEC.
I can buy this one. The SEC is gonna be brutal. They have losses coming against Bama, plus a tough road stretch at Kentucky and A&M. I can see 5 more losses. That might put the regular season championship in doubt, but easily could win the tourney. Especially if they get Johni Broome back around that time. (Mostly Agree)
UK finishes the reg season 9-4 to finish 12-6 in conference. No clue which games they win or lose.
UK is currently projected by KenPom to finish 10-8 in the conference. So which two games can they flip to finish 12-6? I'll say they get Tennessee at home on February 11 and they sneak that home game against Auburn. If they can do that, they should try to go for one more and beat Missouri on the road in the regular season finale. That puts them at 13-5. Which happens to be tied with Auburn in your prediction…hmm. (Disagree)
Arkansas goes 3-15 but has at least one big win.
Will Coach Cal win a game before the Fourth of July in 2025? Maybe. If he doesn't grab one of the next two against Georgia and Oklahoma, his next best change to win is February 12 at LSU. His big win? Let's call a win at home against Mississippi State on the season finale as a big win. I don't think they beat UK, Bama, or Auburn. (Disagree)
Bama ties Auburn at 13-5.
That's what KenPom currently predicts (based on game by game predictions). The game that will determine it: Home against Florida on March 5. (AGREE)
Tennessee loses 5 more times because their schedule is brutal.
I have them down to lose against Auburn on Saturday, Florida, at UK, and against Alabama. That's only 4 more losses. Who could be the 5th? I'll say Ole Miss on the road March 5th. (Slight Disagree)
Houston wins the Big 12.
Seems obvious. Is obvious. Go Cougs. (AGREE!)
Kansas makes the Elite 8 and loses.
I don't think they get that far. Before everyone starts clutching pearls in Lawrence, let's check it. They don't draw free throws. At an alarming rate. At a Vince Carter at age 41 kind of rate. And their defense doesn't produce a high level of turnovers. And they only shoot a handful of threes per game. A recipe for a round 1 upset. If they get a 3 seed or lower, they will start seeing Bucknell Bison ghosts. (Disagree)
Iowa St. makes the Elite 8 and loses.
Tough squad. Do everything well. Offense and defense. I don't love the fact that they don't shoot a ton of threes. But they are pretty efficent otherwise. A +7.5% margin on turnover percentage and a +7.4% margin on offensive rebound rate means they just get more possessions to win the game. I think they are a lock for the Final Four…so count me out on this prediction. (Disagree)
Duke is in the title game.
I hate this. So much. But I agree. They have figured out how to play elite basketball with highly talented players. I hate this so much. (Agree)