The Season Preview Nobody Asked For!
Preseason Power Conference Predictions
I’m ready to be wrong again!
Anyone who has read my March Madness previews the last couple of years knows I don’t have a strong aversion to being completely wrong on the internet. This year, I have decided to double down on being wrong and offer some preseason picks. More shots = more makes, right? Right?!? Below you will find my preseason conference picks for the 2024-25 season, which by next March will make the above picture look good by comparison.
What is included:
Conference Winner & Runner Up
Deep Cut (Team outside top 50 with a chance to finish in the top half of their league)
Disappointment (Team that will not live up to preseason hype)
Conference Player of the Year (POY) picks
Conference Coach of the Year (COY) picks
ACC // BIG TEN // BIG XII // BIG EAST // SEC
ACC
Conference Winner: Duke Blue Devils
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 4 overall, 1 ACC
KenPom Preseason Rank: 2 overall, 1 ACC
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 1
The 2024-25 Blue Devils are giving me some 2012 Kentucky vibes. You have key returning contributors who could win games for you and an incredible freshman class that includes a possible NPOY that NBA teams are already planning to tank for in Cooper Flagg, who could be the best freshman since Zion Williamson. If Jon Scheyer can manage this team correctly, Duke could run over everyone on their way to a title.
Runner up: North Carolina Tar Heels
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 14 overall, 2 ACC
KenPom Preseason Rank: 15 overall, 2 ACC
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 15
The return of RJ Davis keeps UNC in championship contention, but I can’t help but feel like the supporting cast around him has taken a step back this season. Elliot Cadeau will hopefully show improvement this season, and first impressions of Ian Jackson are solid. The Tar Heels definitely seem above the pack in comparison with the rest of the ACC, but whether or not they can overtake Duke in the conference standings will be the question of the season.
Deep Cut: Stanford Cardinal
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 114 overall, 16 ACC
KenPom Preseason Rank: 99 overall, 16 ACC
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 100
This pick is based on two things:
1. Kyle Smith is an incredible coach, made clear by the fact that he took Washington St. to the tournament. Only two WSU coaches have done that in the 64-team era: Kelvin Sampson and Tony Bennett.
2. Stanford’s roster isn’t as bad as it looks. They kept Maxime Raynaud, and transferred in a couple of solid pieces. Plus, it isn’t like Smith had the Fab Five on his Cougars team last year.
Disappointment: Clemson Tigers
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 36 overall, 3 ACC
KenPom Preseason Rank: 24 overall, 3 ACC
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 41
Clemson overperformed in March, and, in my opinion, that has led to a level of overhype in October. The Tigers finished 5th in conference last season at 11-9. They also lost PJ Hall, who was their best player. Add that that ACC is (arguably) deeper than last season, and I think Clemson is much more likely to finish similar to last season or worse than they are to finishing top 4 in the league.
Conference POY: Cooper Flagg
What can I say? I believe the hype.
Conference COY: Kyle Smith
I mean, if they go from picked 15th to top 5 in the league, he has to win, right?
Big Ten
Conference Winner: Michigan Wolverines
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 26 overall, 4 B10
KenPom Preseason Rank: 36 overall, 8 B10
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 3
It seems a consensus has arrived that the Big Ten is going to be pretty wide open this season. With the departure of big names from the past two seasons (Zach Edey and Terrence Shannon Jr., particularly), there isn’t much agreement on who will take the conference’s top spot in 2025. I’ll take a flyer on Dusty May in his new gig. I know his FAU team disappointed last season, but I feel like the Wolverines are a bit of a distressed asset. We’ve seen this before, when an underperforming team makes a change and wins a lot more games (Pearl at Tennessee, Oats at Alabama, Otzelberger at Iowa St.) I’ll take my chances here.
Runner up: Indiana Hoosiers
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 18 overall, 2 B10
KenPom Preseason Rank: 39 overall, 10 B10
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 8
Mike Woodson has given me no reason to believe in his coaching abilities, but man, this is a good roster. Mgbako, Ballo, Carlyle, Reneau, Rice, and Galloway is a solid top 6, and that is before you consider the additions of Luke Goode and Bryson Tucker. Teams can still pick up wins through talent alone in college basketball, even if coaching leaves something to be desired. I’m not picking the Hoosiers to the Final Four or anything, but I think they could pick up some extra wins in the regular season based on sheer talent.
Deep Cut: USC Trojans
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 46 overall, 11 B10
KenPom Preseason Rank: 56 overall, 13 B10
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 43
When it comes to winning with transfers, I’m going to give Coach Muss the benefit of the doubt. The middle of the Big 10 looks murky right now, and USC is projected closer to the lower end of the bog. I think Muss does enough to get to the top half of the Big 10.
Disappointment: Purdue Boilermakers
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 11 overall, 1 B10
KenPom Preseason Rank: 10 overall, 1 B10
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 19
Before anybody freaks out, just let me qualify what I mean by a disappointing season. For Purdue this year, I think it is safe to say that, in comparison to national preseason expectations, finishing something like 4th or 5th in the B10 while ranked somewhere between 19-25 in the polls would be a disappointment. That’s the kind of year I’m predicting for Purdue. I just can’t imagine there not being a drop-off after losing a player of the magnitude of Zach Edey. Braden Smith is a good player, but the gravity of every game revolved around Edey playing the role of Godzilla for the past two seasons. His absence will be felt on the court and in Purdue’s W/L record. That’s not a fault of Purdue’s so much as a testament to Edey. Painter is a great coach and won’t let the wheels fall off. But, come on. Everybody takes a step back when they lose a NPOY. A guy like Edey leaved an even bigger hole (literally).
Conference POY: Oumar Ballo
Voters love counting stats, and Ballo stands a good chance to average a double double this season for a winning team.
Conference COY: Dusty May
Just trying to be consistent. If he wins the league in year one, he deserves the award.
Big XII
Conference Winner: Kansas Jayhawks
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 6 overall, 3 B12
KenPom Preseason Rank: 7 overall, 2 B12
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 2
The Jayhawks lost to Arkansas in an exhibition game the other night. I do not believe the hype around Hunter Dickinson as a NPOY candidate. They also lost their best player from last season. So why am I picking them to win the league? First, because there is a CBB law that says Kansas can only lose at home once a year at most, and the referees are expected to make sure that law is upheld. Secondly, I think their road schedule lines up just a tiny bit more favorably than their top competitors. Thirdly, I think they have a top-2 roster in all of college basketball and, once Self gets the kinks worked out, will be firing on all cylinders like the early 2020s Ochai-Agbaji-and-Jalen-Wilson-led Kanas teams we have come to know and love. One of the reasons I believe in Kansas is because I think Self knows how to use Dickinson, and the fact that Self won’t focus his entire team around him will be a positive.
Runner up: Houston Cougars
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 1 overall, 1 B12
KenPom Preseason Rank: 1 overall, 1 B12
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 4
Did you expect something else? Every season, it’s the same thing. Kelvin Sampson knows how to recruit interchangeable parts to where the Cougars can play the same way every year with no drop-off, even though the roster changes. I expect a pretty similar result to last year’s team. Sampson has made this program an automatic contender for a top spot in any league it plays in.
Deep Cut: West Virginia Mountaineers
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 86 overall, 11 B12
KenPom Preseason Rank: 86 overall, 15 B12
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 67
This just comes down to acknowledging the possibility of Tucker DeVries showing up and playing out of his mind for a season.
Disappointment: Arizona Wildcats
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 11 overall, 1 B12
KenPom Preseason Rank: 10 overall, 1 B12
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 19
Like Purdue, I don’t think Arizona will be bad. But the Big XII is ridiculously tough. How much do you really trust a backcourt of Caleb Love and Jaden Bradley to finish top 3 in this conference over other contenders like Baylor and Iowa St.? I think it is more likely a couple mid-tier Big 12 teams like Texas Tech, Kansas St, Cincinnati, or even BYU pass Arizona than the Wildcats finishing top 4. Again, 6th or 7th in the Big 12 this season is not bad. But it would be at least a tad disappointing.
Conference POY: Tamin Lipsey, Iowa St.
I think Lipsey will be for this season what Tyler Kolek was for last season. I expect him to be the most recognizable player in a conference where teams get much more of the focus than individual players.
Conference COY: Bill Self, Kansas
I’m gonna call it now: Kansas finishes with less than 5 losses overall. Self takes home the hardware.
Big East
Conference Winner: Creighton Bluejays
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 13 overall, 2 BE
KenPom Preseason Rank: 12 overall, 2 BE
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 13
I’ll get to UConn soon, but this pick makes me nervous mostly because Creighton always loses 2-4 games they definitely should win in December and/or January. In spite of that, I think this team hanging on to their point guard (Ashworth) and big man (Kalkbrenner) will lead to a breakthrough season and the Bluejays’ first outright Big East title.
Runner up: St. John’s Red Storm
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 34 overall, 5 BE
KenPom Preseason Rank: 25 overall, 3 BE
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 28
I think this is the season Pitino gets back on the national scene based on the on-court product of his team (moreso than off-court stuff) since his pre-stripper Louisville days. He loaded up in the transfer portal, and was able to pick the players he wanted for his style. No more complaining about how bad his roster is. This is the first season the roster is completely his, and I think the results will show in advanced metrics and the win/loss record.
Deep Cut: Georgetown Hoyas
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 101 overall, 10 BE
KenPom Preseason Rank: 88 overall, 9 BE
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 55
That’s right! Go big or go home! Year 2 of Ed Cooley is going to result in a winning record, perhaps better. I really liked some of the pickups, including Jordan Burks. I think Burks has the potential to make a Bryce Hopkins-style jump with some development and playing time. The floor is so low at Georgetown nowadays, it wouldn’t take much to make this season a huge success.
Disappointment: UConn Huskies
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 8 overall, 1 BE
KenPom Preseason Rank: 5 overall, 1 BE
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 23
At some point, you can’t lose the majority of your championship roster and field a top 5 team the next season. I think this is the “down” season for UConn. What does that mean? Well, in my opinion, it means finishing 3rd or 4th in their league, and maybe get a 5 seed in the tournament. Perhaps even lose before the Final Four? I know, shockingly terrible.
Although it doesn’t mean much, here are the results of the other two seasons following back-to-back titles:
1992-93 Duke - 3 seed, loss in Round 2
2007-08 Florida - missed NCAAT
I think UConn will fit somewhere between those two.
Conference POY: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton
I picked Kalk last season, and that didn’t turn out great. This season, however, he should be even better, and there seems to be fewer contenders in the POY race. I think Kalkbrenner takes home the trophy for the first place Bluejays in 2025.
Conference COY: Greg McDermott, Creighton
Clean sweep for Creighton. If McDermott wins his first Big East title, he wins this award.
SEC
Conference Winner: Arkansas Razorbacks
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 24 overall, 8 SEC
KenPom Preseason Rank: 25 overall, 6 SEC
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 18
I’m taking a calculated risk here. The biggest reason I’m picking Arkansas to win the toughest version of the SEC in a long time is their conference schedule. Every SEC team plays everyone once, but only three teams in a home-and-home. The teams Arkansas plays twice are Texas, Vanderbilt, and LSU. That’s about as favorable as any team could hope. The toughest road games are @Auburn, @UK, @Tennessee, and @Texas A&M. Let’s say Bud Walton Arena is rocking like Rupp was in 2010 and the Razorbacks go undefeated at home (totally possible), only losing the above road games. Let’s even throw in a surprise road loss. That would leave Arkansas at 13-5. That looks like a record that could win the SEC to me. Not to mention the Razorbacks have a loaded roster and Boogie Fland looks like the real deal. In the meantime, go look at Alabama’s schedule. Bama could be as good as advertised and still have a really hard time finishing that slate with only 5 losses.
Runner up: Auburn Tigers
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 9 overall, 2 SEC
KenPom Preseason Rank: 4 overall, 1 SEC
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 10
This was between Auburn and Alabama, and I just think Bama’s schedule is incredibly brutal. Also, Johni Broome is poised to have an All-American season. The biggest reason for the confidence in Auburn, though, is that KD Johnson is finally off the roster! That has to equate to a 10 point swing every game, right?
Deep Cut: South Carolina Gamecocks
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 71 overall, 16 SEC
KenPom Preseason Rank: 67 overall, 15 SEC
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 58
This wasn’t a hard pick. South Carolina could have a pretty big drop-off from last year and still finish a lot better than the analytics have them. Why do advanced metrics hate this team so much? I think they are a top half SEC team again this year.
Disappointment: Orange Teams (Texas and Tennessee)
Texas:
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 19 overall, 5 SEC
KenPom Preseason Rank: 18 overall, 5 B12
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 30
This just seems like a classic case of a coach taking over a team and things falling off a cliff once that previous coach’s roster is gone. I haven’t seen a lot of reason to believe in Rodney Terry, and then he just lost the last remaining contributors from the previous regime. This is now Terry’s team. I think they finish below .500 in a very deep SEC.
Tennessee:
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 12 overall, 3 SEC
KenPom Preseason Rank: 13 overall, 3 SEC
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 26
I love Zakai Zeigler, but he isn’t going to average 20 points a game. Where are the points going to come from? Dalton Knects don’t grow on trees. I don’t think the Vols completely fall off a cliff or anything, but I do think they finish closer to the middle of the SEC than the top. Preseason has overrated the Vols, in my opinion.
Conference POY: Johni Broome, Auburn
I favor the big man over the guard. Mark Sears may wind up deserving the award more, but I think Auburn will be just a tiny bit more successful. Also, these awards always favor bigs
for some reason.
Conference COY: John Calipari, Arkansas
Can you imagine Cal’s first press conference after winning the SEC and Conference Coach of the Year in his first season at Arkansas? It would be the post-Auburn press conference from last year x100.