The Season Preview Nobody Asked For, Part 2!
Preseason Final Four Predictions
These are all going to be so wrong!
I’m back with some more predictions no one asked for. This time, we are covering NCAA Champion, Runner up, Final Four, a couple Dark Horse picks, and then 4 increasingly unlikely bold predictions.
What is included:
Dark Horse Teams (teams outside the top 25 who could make a run at the FF)
Final Four Teams
Runner Up
National Champion
ACC // BIG TEN // BIG XII // BIG EAST // SEC
Tournament Dark Horse(s):
Florida Gators
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 33
KenPom Preseason Rank: 26
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 27
AP Rank:N/A
I may have a bias here, because I watched Walter Clayton Jr. drop what felt like 47 threes on UK at Rupp Arena last year. The dude is never afraid to shoot, and when he gets hot, he doesn’t miss. Add to that the fact that Florida last year was an incredible offensive rebounding team and should be again this year. The thing Florida was missing the most, in my opinion, last season was a possibly more consistent weapon to go alongside Clayton in the backcourt. Alijah Martin may be able to fill that role. This prediction is based on the fact that Florida is really good, and as a result of playing in a stacked SEC, it’s likely they will go into the NCAAT underrated. Don’t sleep on the Gators.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 16
KenPom Preseason Rank: 14
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 14
AP Rank: N/A
Grant McCasland is a really good coach. I’ve gone all over the place on this team, from thinking they would be a disappointment to thinking they could wind up a top 2 seed in the tournament. I’m going to split the difference and put them here. Playing in the Big 12 will probably mean the record won’t reflect how good the team actually is. Also, JT Toppin has some serious breakout star potential.
(Others considered: Ole Miss, Michigan, Xavier, St. John’s)
Final Four:
Kentucky Wildcats
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 22
KenPom Preseason Rank: 43
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 12
AP Rank: 23
I’m a giant homer. Let’s go ahead and get that out of the way. This is incredibly wishful thinking. However…
The roster is one of the best in the country, according to EvanMiya’s Roster Rank. It’s not because there is one dominant star, either. It’s because the team is 10 deep with players who can all shoot 35% or better from 3. It’s the most experienced team in UK basketball history. The coaching change and the roster turnover have placed UK basketball in a position they have not been for 15 years: underrated. This prediction is based on the fact that UK’s reputation under Calipari ( a team dependent on talent) will inadvertently linger, allowing this new iteration (efficient offense, team defense, pass-heavy play) to take opposing teams off guard. UK, one of the biggest brands in college basketball, has the unique opportunity to catch people off guard this season.
(Also, how did it take me this long to realize Lamont Butler is phenomenal on defense San Diego St., thanks for that gift?)
I know Pope has never won a tournament game, and I know there has never been a team that returned zero minutes from the previous year make a Final Four. This is my time to dream.
(Come on, I intentionally left out the “Disappointments” section this time so I didn’t have to bum anybody out. Give me this one.)
Alabama Crimson Tide
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 3
KenPom Preseason Rank: 4
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 3
AP Rank: 2
I said previously that the Tide’s schedule is so strong I think they will lose more than anticipated. That won’t matter in March. Nate Oats will have the defense improved, and as long as Sears and Nelson are healthy, there will be no games that Alabama will be completely out of. This is one of the 3 or 4 best teams in the country and they will prove it again when it matters most.
Runner up: Duke Blue Devils
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 4
KenPom Preseason Rank: 2
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 1
AP Rank: 7
I also wrote about the Blue Devils in my ACC preview. If Cooper Flagg lives up to the hype, this is the type of team that is built to have just enough experience to balance out the inexperience of the otherworldly talented freshmen. They are number 1 on EvanMiya’s Roster Rank, and it’s easy to see why. Chances are they would be a good team even without Flagg. But add a player that’s kind of too talented for college basketball to an already talented team, and good things happen. However, I think they come up just short to…
National Champion: Gonzaga Bulldogs
EvanMiya Preseason Rank: 2
KenPom Preseason Rank: 9
EvanMiya Roster Rank: 5
AP Rank: 6
I think this is the season. The Bulldogs return 81% of their returning possession minutes from a team that ended last season capable of destroying people. Remember the Kansas game in the tournament? I think Mark Few’s team figured each other out after the UK road win last year, and are just going to be better this season. There is also the fact that last season was stacked with at least two historically good teams in UConn and Purdue. Remember in 2009, after a historically strong year with four 1-seeds making the Final Four, how most of those teams took a step back, yet UNC kept almost their entire team and just ran through everybody in March? I don’t think Gonzaga is going to be head and shoulders better than everyone else this season like the ‘09 Tar Heels were, but I do think they will be the best team in the country.