Tuesday Truths 1/14/25 - Don’t Call It a Comeback Edition
Really. Don't call it that.
Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where we look at how well 79 (and counting!) teams in the top five conferences are measuring up against league opponents in conference play.
For those of you who are familiar with the Tuesday Truths brand, you may have noticed that I am, in fact, not John Gasaway. John Gasaway, of course, was the originator of Tuesday Truths way back on a website called Basketball Prospectus. He went on to hit the bigtime and continue the column for ESPN. John has moved on from the Worldwide Leader and college basketball in general to write about other interests. We are all happy for John and wish him the best in his new venture. Let’s be honest, though–conference play coming along without his Tuesday Truths column is a bummer for those like me who looked forward to it weekly for years.
While it remains true that I am not John Gasaway, I took a chance and asked the Man himself for permission to take up the Tuesday Truths mantle in a college basketball world that desperately needs more content (ha!). His response was a kind and encouraging, “Go for it!”
Unlike John, I am not trained in the ways of statistics. Like John, I am a college basketball fan first and foremost who loves to delve deep into topics only 2% of the population care about. As a Tuesday Truths reader since the Basketball Prospectus days, I am proud to carry on the rich tradition of per-possession conference play truth-giving.
With that said, here is the reality as of January 14, 2025—in the finest 10-point Courier Microsoft Excel has to offer, of course.
Games through January 13, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP – Opp. PPP)
ACC: Louisville Fans, Rejoice! Cardinals Basketball is Relevant Again!
25% through conference play and the Louisville Cardinals have already tied their conference win total of the previous two seasons combined. Not only that, but the Cards are doing it with a healthy efficiency margin against the best the ACC has to offer (although this season, that isn’t the honor it has been in the past). The obligatory conference loss to Duke is already out of the way, with wins over Clemson, UNC, and Pitt already in the rearview. Our buddy Ken Pomeroy has Louisville favored for every game other than a road contest at SMU. Even though an 18-2 conference record is probably too lofty of a goal this season, there is a real chance that Pat Kelsey leads this team to more conference wins in a this season than the previous administration totaled in the past two (That number is 12. Yes, Kenny Payne won 12 games total as a head coach). The future is bright for the Cardinal faithful.
(Also, it isn’t lost on me that Duke is completely destroying everyone in this conference, nor is it surprising. The path to an undefeated conference season is broad for the Blue Devils, with just a few challenging road tests in their way. Come on, you don’t actually think they are going to lose at Cameron Indoor this season, do you?)
Big 12: The Best Defense in the Conference Obviously Resides in Houston Lawrence
While the biggest takeaway after 20% of Big 12 conference play may be Houston’s excellence on both sides of the ball, what may come as a surprise is that the Cougars do not own the best defense in the league right now. That title goes to Bill Self’s Kansas Jayhawks, who seem to have decided that simply not letting the other team score is the best way to make up for their own offensive struggles.
Kansas hasn’t shot well at all through conference play, hitting only 46% of their 2s and a measly 26% of their 3s. But who needs to shoot well when you can just make your opponents shoot even worse? Kansas is currently allowing only 36% from 2 and 22% from 3. In addition to the stifling D, Kansas is also barely fouling. The Jayhawks are committing fouls on only 15% of opponents’ offensive possessions. Yes, the “Kansas gets all the calls” jokes write themselves, but it should be mentioned that two of the 3 wins so far were on the road. Perhaps what we are seeing is a team that historically gets a favorable whistle merging that power with actually not fouling very much.
Big East: Hoyas Fans, Rejoice! Georgetown Basketball is Relevant Again!
Take a good, hard look, Georgetown fans. The basketball team you root for has a W/L record above .500 through multiple conference games for the first time since the Obama administration. On February 17, 2016, Drew Fielder was 11 years old, Patrick Ewing was still a beloved Georgetown alumnus, and the Hoyas fell to 7-7 in league play under John Thompson III. Since that day, the only time the Hoyas have been over .500 was in 2019 when they started conference play 1-0 (and that doesn’t really count.)
Today, Georgetown is 3-2 and ranked 5th (top half!) in EM through five conference games. 25% of conference play is in the books, and Georgetown fans have legitimate hope of making the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2015. They also have the 2nd best defense in league play so far, behind only Rick Pitino’s St. John’s squad.
Celebrate, Hoyas fans! Basketball is fun again.
Big Ten: Sparty’s Clinic on How to Score Efficiently Without Making 3s
When I first saw these numbers, my first thought was, “How is Michigan State’s offense so good when they can’t shoot?” After all, the Spartans only shoot 28% from behind the arc, which is good for 336th nationally. That means that if you were to sort teams by 3pt%, you could sort them from worst to best and Michigan State would be one of the first 30 team names you saw.
While that may or may not bode well for long term success, Sparty’s offensive numbers are explained through three stats: two point shooting, offensive rebounding, and Free Throw %. Izzo’s men rank 37th nationally in 2pt%, 24th in offensive rebounding %, and 3rd in FT%. In other words, the Spartans rebound nearly 40% of all their misses, hit nearly 60% of their shots close to the basket, and knock down almost all of their free throw attempts. They are also only attempting about 20% of their shots from 3, which is really smart when you don’t make any of them.
SEC: The Florida Gators Must Recharge!
The two of the three best offensive performances in SEC conference play so far have come from Alabama and Florida. In said performance, both teams scored 1.39 PPP. In the case of Alabama, this blast of offensive led to a rout of the previously undefeated Oklahoma Sooners, 107-79. Unfortunately for Florida, their incredible offensive output took place during the same game Kentucky scored 1.47 PPP, losing 106-100.
Since the UK game to open conference play, Florida has scored 1.07 PPP against Tennessee and 1.03 PPP against Arkansas. It seems the Gators need to recharge on offense. Luckily (or skillfully?) enough, Florida’s defense has been on point the last two games, holding Arkansas to less than a point per possession and Tennessee to their worst offensive output of the season.
BONUS INSIGHT: You may have noticed UK’s efficiency margin is on the negative side. Surprising as that is for a top 10 team, the ‘Cats have their abysmal 2 point defense to thank. Through three conference games, UK is allowing opponents to score on 64% of their 2 point attempts. Top put that in perspective, that mark is the worst among any of the teams belonging to the five conferences featured here. Only South Carolina, Seton Hall and Notre Dame have allowed 60% shooting on 2s, and even those squads can look down on UK’s interior defense. While the offense has held up enough to manage wins, one has to wonder how realistic a deep March run could be without significant improvement.