Weekend Preview - 1/17/2025
Big Ten's weekend to shine...or splat.
Friday Night Special
Iowa at UCLA, January 17th - 9 PM
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Iowa's high-powered offense will be tested by UCLA's top-tier defense. The Hawkeyes' ability to maintain a low turnover rate and high effective field goal percentage will be crucial against the Bruins' defensive prowess. On the other hand, UCLA's offense will need to capitalize on Iowa's defensive weaknesses, particularly in effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding.
It will be interesting to see if Iowa can survive the travel out west to bolster their hopes for a spot in the tourney. According to Joe Lunardi, they are living outside the bubble but a win in Pauley Pavilion would go a long way in helping to secure a spot on the right side of the bubble.
Player to Watch:
Brock Harding, Iowa's dynamic point guard, is a pivotal force in their offense. Ranked in the top 30 nationally for assist rate, Harding is known for his quick, probing style of play. He excels at handling the ball with finesse and finding open shooters with pinpoint passes. While he occasionally overextends himself, his impressive 39% three-point shooting makes him a constant threat. Without Harding's playmaking abilities, Iowa's offense tends to become stagnant, highlighting his crucial role in their success.
Saturday's Big 3
Purdue vs. Oregon, January 18th - 3 PM
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The Purdue Boilermakers (ranked 12th) will face off against the Oregon Ducks (ranked 26th) in what promises to be an exciting matchup. Both teams have shown strong performances this season, and this game will be a crucial test for both squads.
Purdue's offense has been impressive, boasting an adjusted efficiency of 123.3 (ranked 9th) and an effective field goal percentage of 58.0% (ranked 10th). They excel in three-point shooting, hitting 39.7% of their attempts (ranked 7th). On the other hand, Oregon's defense has an adjusted efficiency of 97.6 (ranked 43rd) and allows an effective field goal percentage of 47.9% (ranked 67th). The Ducks will need to tighten their defense to contain Purdue's potent offense. Meanwhile, Oregon's offense is also strong, with an adjusted efficiency of 118.6 (ranked 20th) and an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% (ranked 85th). They are particularly effective in free throw shooting, hitting 74.5% of their attempts (ranked 97th). Purdue's defense, with an adjusted efficiency of 97.6 (ranked 42nd) and an effective field goal percentage allowed of 49.4% (ranked 133rd), will need to focus on limiting Oregon's scoring opportunities.
Players to Watch:
Nate Bittle, standing tall at 7 feet, is a key player for the Oregon Ducks, often drawing comparisons to a poor man's Arvydas Sabonis with his ability to step out and shoot, and his high post passing that allows the offense to revolve around him. Some might even see him as a rich man's Roy Hibbert. Bittle is not only a physical presence on the court but also a statistical powerhouse, boasting an impressive offensive rating of 117.4 and a remarkable 2-point shooting percentage of 62.6%. His efficiency and effectiveness on the offensive end are crucial to Oregon's strategy. Alongside him, Supreme Cook, at 6'9", complements Bittle's skills with an offensive rating of 115.5 and a 59.6% success rate with 2-point shots. Together, Bittle and Cook form a formidable frontcourt pairing that puts points on the board and demands constant vigilance from opponents, making them pivotal to Oregon's aspirations and players to watch in any matchup.
Kentucky vs. Alabama, January 18th - 12 PM
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The upcoming game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena looks like it'. Alabama's offense, led by Mark Sears (119.8 ORtg) and Grant Nelson (111.2 ORtg), boasts an impressive adjusted efficiency of 123.7, while Kentucky's defense, anchored by Lamont Butler (123.2 ORtg) and Amari Williams (112.1 ORtg), will look to stifle their opponents with a solid 100.8 adjusted efficiency. Bama's recent home loss against Ole Miss rains on the parade a bit, but this will still be vital for trying to determine who is going to take the SEC crown.
On the flip side, Kentucky's offense, with an adjusted efficiency of 124.5, will be a formidable challenge for Alabama's defense, which has an adjusted efficiency of 97.0. Key players like Otega Oweh (120.6 ORtg) and Jaxson Robinson (116.4 ORtg) for Kentucky will go a long way in determining the ultimate outcome. UK hasn't lost at home yet, but something makes me itchy thinking they could be ripe for home-cookin' to go bad. Although nothing is gonna stop that soft serve ice cream.
Players to Watch:
When Alabama and Kentucky face off at Rupp Arena, keep an eye on Mark Sears and Lamont Butler. Sears, Alabama's offensive dynamo, boasts an impressive 119.8 offensive rating and has a usage rate of 24.9% of possessions. His ability to score efficiently and create opportunities will be crucial for Alabama. On the other side, Kentucky's Lamont Butler is an offensive firecracker himself, with a 123.2 offensive rating and a top 85 assist rate. Butler's defensive prowess and ability to disrupt Alabama's offense will also be key for Kentucky, with the SEC's 4th highest steal rate in conference play despite almost never getting in foul trouble.
Arizona vs. Texas Tech, January 18th - 2 PM
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In a highly anticipated matchup, Texas Tech faces a formidable Arizona team that has recently surged back into Final Four conversations. Arizona's impressive offensive rebounding ability, ranking 13th in offensive rebounding percentage, has been a key factor in their success, allowing them to dominate the glass and create second-chance opportunities. They are doing this while struggling from three point range, shooting under 33% for the season. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has struggled to get to the free throw line on offense, ranking near the bottom in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. This disparity could prove crucial as Arizona's aggressive play and ability to control the boards may give them the edge in this contest.
Players to Watch:
Two standout players to keep an eye on are Anthony Dell'Orso for Arizona and Chance McMillian for Texas Tech. Dell'Orso has been a key contributor for the Wildcats, averaging 9.1 points per game this season. Known for his efficient shooting and defensive prowess, Dell'Orso's ability to make clutch plays could be pivotal for Arizona. His recent development has re-ignited much of the talk on Arizona's ceiling. On the other side, McMillian has been a consistent performer for the Red Raiders, averaging 16.1 points and 4.3 rebounds per game. His impressive shooting percentage of 57% and ability to score from beyond the arc make him a significant threat. Both players' performances will be crucial in determining the outcome of this highly anticipated matchup.
Sunday Funday
Illinois at Michigan State, January 19th - 12 PM
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It feels wrong to sneak this one in on Sunday during NFL Divisional Playoffs, but the Big 10 has a good one setup for America. The runnin' Illini have been really good this season, with only a few hiccups to top tier out of conference teams, and middle of the road Big 10 teams. Their loss last Saturday at home versus USC was particularly puzzling but Brad Underwood has a good squad, led by freshman Kasparas Jakucionis (glad I just have to type it and not say it, yet). He's got a sweet stepback jumper and looks super smooth on drives to the bucket. He also has an knack of fighting through double team traps off pick and roll to penetrate and finish or dish. As for Michigan State, they are on a 10 game win streak, knocking down mid-tier Big Ten teams. This will be their first KenPom top 10 test since Kansas on November 12. Led by senior Jaden Akins, the Spartans have been lock down on defense, forcing a 45.9% effective FG shooting percentage. However, they can't buy one from three on offense this year, with a bottom 5% shooting percentage from deep (28.7%). They need to identify ways to keep the ball out of Jakucionis' hands and build a lead early to snag this win in East Lansing on Sunday.