Tuesday Truths 1/21/25 - Average at Best Edition
Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where we look at how well 79 (and counting!) teams in the top five conferences are measuring up against league opponents in conference play. For an introduction and a brief history of the origins of the Tuesday Truths column, click here.
Games through January 20, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP – Opp. PPP)
ACC: This Cooper Flagg Guy Might be Pretty Good
Another week into conference play brings more opportunity for Duke to crush ACC competition into fine little bits of analytic powder. This powder-making process is in no small part due to Cooper Flagg (you may not be aware of Flagg—he isn’t talked about much by sports media). Flagg is currently ranked first in Ken Pomeroy’s player rating system (kPOY) with a rating of 2.758. That is good for the second highest rating ever in Ken’s system, behind Frank Kaminsky’s 2015 campaign at Wisconsin. If the ranking holds, Flagg will be only the fourth player ever with a kPOY ranking over 2.6. The others:
Zach Edey, 2024: 2.699
Frank Kaminsky, 2015: 2.794
Russ Smith, 2013: 2.636
In addition to having a ridiculous kPOY ranking, these players also have another attribute in common: all of them made the title game, with Russ-diculous (terrible nickname) bringing home the title. Could Cooper Flagg lead the 2025 Duke squad to the same heights?
Big 12: Is Houston Underrated?
Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars are putting a nearly Duke-sized beating on the Big 12, all the while the Big 12 is a much stronger conference than the ACC. Why, then, isn’t Houston getting more publicity? They have quietly crept back into the top 10 in the AP poll, sitting at 7 this week. Why no hubbub?
The obvious reason is that the Cougars took three losses early in the season, and high profile ones at that. It’s always hard to recover your reputation as a great team after you flame out on national TV a couple of times. However, all of those losses were close. And, by the way…Houston has no losses since November.
A more reasonable answer for the lack of hullabaloo around Houston is the fact that there have been no marquee win. As good as the above numbers look, Houston has yet to beat a team in the top six of the conference. Of course, you could argue that the teams Houston has beaten in conference play so far are in the bottom half because of the thrashing the Cougars handed out. That may be true, but until Houston beats a big name, they will continue to fall into the “probably underrated” category. Good news, Cougars fans! You get a chance to prove yourselves this weekend in Allen Fieldhouse. Good luck.
Big East: St. John’s and Pitino’s…What is the Opposite of a Bombino?
Unlike Pitino’s UK team in the late ‘80’s, this St. John’s team will not be remembered for their 3 point shooting acumen. As a matter of fact, they may be remembered for the exact opposite. Currently, the Red Storm shoot 30% from 3 while wisely not taking very many at all. Rather, St. John’s has topped their conference by defending at a rate much better than your average 2025 Big East team. St. John’s is allowing a 44% eFG rate in conference play, shutting down opponents from inside and outside the line. In turn, this is likely the best team Pitino has coached since his Louisville days.
Big Ten: Maryland is Currently the Embodiment of an Average Big Ten Team
The Terps are doing a great job at providing the perfect baseline for the rest of the Big Ten. Maryland is currently playing at the average Big Ten pace, scoring at the average Big Ten rate, defending slightly above the Big Ten average, and sit at a tidy .500 in league play. They currently serve as the bridge between the below average Big Ten teams and the Top Five, who have separated themselves from the rest of the pack nearly 40% through the conference slate.
If Maryland can play the role of that gatekeeper well and only allow losses to teams ranked above them here, it could turn out to be a slightly above average season for the Terps. The bad news is that 1) they have already given up three losses to teams ranked below them and 2) two of their next three are against the Top Five. If they want to keep their average tournament hopes alive, Maryland needs to balance out those losses to bottom tier Big Ten teams, starting with a win over Illinois this week.
SEC: The Best Defense in the Conference Obviously Resides in Knoxville Oxford
Currently, the best defense in the SEC belongs to the Ole Miss Rebels, and it isn’t really close. So far, Ole Miss is holding conference opponents to less than a point per possession—the only team in the conference able to claim that feat.
In turn, Ole Miss also has by far the worst offense among the top SEC teams. Only Tennessee has both a comparable offense and positive EM. Even in the statistical avalanche that was their loss to Florida, the Vols only allowed 1.07 PPP to the Gators. The clear truth is, through five games, Ole Miss has consistently been the better defense, holding four of five opponents to right at a point per possession or lower. No other SEC team can say the same.