Tuesday Truths 1/28/25 - Mid-Conference Season Questions Edition
What have we learned in Month One of conference season?
Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where we look at how well 79 (and counting!) teams in the top five conferences are measuring up against league opponents in conference play. For an introduction and a brief history of the origins of the Tuesday Truths column, click here.
Games through January 20, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP – Opp. PPP)
ACC: Is Louisville Better Than Their Numbers?
I spoke glowingly of the Cards in the first edition of Tuesday Truths, and I’m going to have to do so again. Louisville currently has the second best offense and fourth best defense in the ACC, and they haven’t even played Miami yet! As you may know, Miami is currently the worst major conference team in the country, allowing other ACC teams to beat them to a pulp on a regular basis. Duke, for example, has such a large efficiency margin not only because they are very good, but also because they beat the Hurricanes by roughly a jillion points. Clemson, the only other ACC team in the ballpark of Louisville and Duke from an EM standpoint, also has a win over Miami, although the Tigers played them back when they still had a head coach. Louisville doesn’t play Miami for another two weeks, which means their numbers here have not been inflated by a lop-sided win over a very bad team. Perhaps it’s time to take the Cardinals seriously.
Big 12: Why Isn’t Arizona Ranked?
Now that football season is just about over, it’s time for AP voters to start paying attention to college basketball. Hopefully lack of distraction will spark the realization that Arizona is one of the top 15 teams in the country. Despite their early season losses, the Wildcats deserve recognition for this in-season turnaround in a more sincere way than being placed in the “others receiving votes” category. The Wildcats have lost once since Santa Claus went back into hiding. While the turnaround involves many factors, abig one is that Arizona’s 3’s started going in at a regular rate. Before Christmas, the Wildcats were hitting only around 30% of their 3s. Since then, they have been hitting at a much more respectable 35%. If they can maintain their offensive performance while maintaining a defense a hair better than the league average, this team may very well live up to their preseason top 10 ranking after all.
Big East: Does Dan Hurley Need a Lesson in Ref Management?
It is clear to everyone who watches them that UConn has some defensive issues. While their offense is tops in the Big East by far, they are defending at a rate somewhere between Providence and Butler (no offense, Friars and Bulldogs). That is partially explained by the fact that UConn’s opponents are shooting a collective 38% from 3 in conference play. The poor 3 point defense could be due to bad luck (though at this point in the season, there is almost assuredly something else going on), but there is a bigger issue—one that The Best Coach in The Sport Right Now might have more control over: opponent free throw rate. Right now, the Huskies are sending opponents to the FT line 41% of the time. I can’t help but think that, perhaps, Dan Hurley being a hair’s breadth away from this version of Happy Gilmore five minutes into every game. The BCITSRN might want to take a lesson in ref manipulation from the Best Referee Manipulator of All Time, Mike Krzyzewski. K did his share of ref berating, but in a less demonstrative way. Rather than turning into Yosemite Sam on the sidelines like Hurley, K handled his business more like a mob boss. A discreet comment to a frightened referee changed the trajectory of many a game in the 90s and early 2000s. Hurley can’t truly take the title of Best in the Sport until his team starts getting a friendlier whistle.
Big Ten: How Good is Wisconsin?
Back in early December, Wisconsin lost its first two conference games as part of a 3-game swoon. In conference games that have taken place in 2025, Wisconsin has the most efficient offense, third best defense, and highest EM in the Big Ten. At the same time, the Badgers haven’t exactly played the cream of the crop in those games. Every conference win in January came against a team ranked 7th or lower on this list. The meat of the Badger’s schedule doesn’t come until mid February, when Illinois, Oregon, Purdue, and Michigan St. make it onto the schedule. Until then, we can only judge the Badgers on what they have done, and what they have done is win the games they were supposed to win. By a lot.
SEC: Is a Clear Top Three Emerging?
A top tier of the SEC seems to be forming six games into the conference season: Florida, Alabama, and Auburn have delineated themselves from the rest of this stacked conference on a per-possession basis and on the basis of their record. In addition to having great numbers here, each of these teams have done at least two of the following:
Score 100+ in Rupp Arena (Florida, Alabama)
Beat Tennessee (Florida, Auburn)
Narrowly escape against a bottom-tier conference opponent (Florida, Auburn, Alabama)
Florida has done all three (they aren’t at the top of the rankings by accident!), but Auburn and Alabama won’t have a chance to complete the trifecta until March 1. In the meantime, the rest of the SEC has twelve more league games to catch up.