Tuesday Truths 2/11/25 - Football Fans Welcome Edition
Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where we look at how well 79 (and counting!) teams in the top five conferences are measuring up against league opponents in conference play. For an introduction and a brief history of the origins of the Tuesday Truths column, click here.
This week, we are welcoming in all the football fans who just remembered college basketball exists. For those just joining us, welcome to what may be one of the most enjoyable college hoops season in a long time. There are more excellent teams than normal (look at those KenPom AdjEM numbers!) in a season that feels like a throwback to the early 2000s.
Games through February 10, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP – Opp. PPP)
ACC: Duke Only Loses When Cooper Flagg Falls Down
Duke has lost only three times this season, and somehow all three have involved Cooper Flagg, the top NBA prospect and one of two potential POY candidates, falling down in crucial moments. He did it against UK back in November, at Kansas in December, and again this weekend in a road loss to Clemson. There is an alternate universe somewhere where Flagg has the balancing skills of a cat and Duke is undefeated in the regular season. If Duke can figure out a way to A) increase Flagg’s balancing skill to superhuman levels, B) help him to sweat a little less profusely, or C) hire a team full of guys with Sham-Wow’s to mop the court every possession, you’re looking at a team ready to win the whole thing.
Big 12: A Clear Top 4 That Does Not Include the Preseason Number 1 Team
It’s clear both through numbers like those above and through watching games that Houston is the cream of the crop in the Big 12. What isn’t clear, however, is what is going on in Lawrence, Kansas. The Jayhawks cannot score with any type of efficiency. While Bill Self’s boys are defending on the same level as Houston and Iowa St., the offensive potency is nowhere to be found. At this point of the season, it is hard to change your identity offensively. Defenses can turn themselves around occasionally with gimmicks, like the 2015 Duke team who covered their defensive inefficiencies with a nice switch-up to zone. KU’s offense won’t be improved with gimmicks. However, may I suggest getting to the line more? Kansas has been in steady decline in FT attempts over the past 3 seasons. It may not be a coincidence that the previous two seasons that started this trend both ended in second round exits.
Big East: Marquette Can Keep the Ball, but Can They Shoot the Ball?
The Golden Eagles are on a 3-game skid in Big East play. Even through this skid, Marquette has maintained the best turnover percentage in the league by a fairly significant margin (11.7%, with 2nd place Villanova nearly three percentage points behind). The problem is that, while the hold onto the ball well, they can’t get it into that circular thing hanging from the backboard. In the past three games, Marquette has failed to shoot over 50% on their twos or 33% on their threes. It’s hard to win games without scoring (duh). The good news is that this shooting slump will probably turn around eventually. The question is if that will come before the Golden Eagles’ seeding takes a hit it cannot recover from. Formerly projected on the 2-seed line, Marquette is rapidly falling into 4-seed territory.
Big Ten: I Was Right About Michigan (kind of)
In my season preview, I named Michigan as my preseason Big Ten champ. While there is still a lot of basketball to be played, it is nice to see that they are at least in contention with almost three quarters of conference play in the books. Of course, the Wolverine’s record is looking a lot better than their Truths numbers. While tied for second in the conference standings, they are seventh here. It remains to be seen if Michigan will continue to win more than their PPP numbers suggest, or if wins will regress to the mean a bit.
SEC: The Game of the Year of the Week is Happening Saturday!
Truly, we are living in a sports world ruled by football. Alabama and Auburn will be matching up this weekend in the rare 1 vs 2 matchup, and it will be on the hardwood instead of the football field. Even more surprising is that this is the first such matchup in SEC history.
These two basketball powerhouses will be meeting up with virtually identical numbers as far as Tuesday Truths is concerned. Auburn has a slightly better defense in conference while Bama has a slightly better offense in conference. Both have an identical efficiency margin. One is coming off their second loss of the season, while the other hasn’t lost in a month. While both teams have somewhat tough road games on the docket prior to the weekend, there is a high probability that this game will be for first place in the SEC. Did I mention these teams hate each other? Or that one player in the game played for the other last season (Aden Holloway)? Or that arguably the NPOY favorite will be trying to come back with a strong performance after playing subpar against Florida last weekend (Johni Broome)? Or that a 1-seed could potentially be on the line?
Football fans, you of all people should be excited for this one. Welcome back to college basketball.