Tuesday Truths 2/4/25 - Big Emotions Edition
Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where we look at how well 79 (and counting!) teams in the top five conferences are measuring up against league opponents in conference play. For an introduction and a brief history of the origins of the Tuesday Truths column, click here.
Games through January 20, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP – Opp. PPP)
ACC: Not a Great Weekend for UNC
As evidenced by the utter beatdown at the hands of the Duke Blue Devils over the weekend, UNC has not been great this season. Granted, Duke does that to a lot of opponents. In the case of the Heels, much of their disappointment has been laid at the feet of Hubert Davis and the lack of a big man. Let me suggest that the problems may equally stem from the backcourt.
Carolina's interior defense seems to be holding its own, allowing opponents to shoot only 48% from 2 in conference. Even against Duke, the Tar Heels rebounded 37% of their own misses and grabbed the same number of defensive rebounds as Duke. However, the Blue Devils hit more 3s (10 to 7), had fewer turnovers (8 to 14), and got to the free throw line more than UNC (14 attempts to 25 for Duke). The Tar Heels rank near the bottom of the ACC in protecting the ball (15th in TO%), free throw rate (12th), and 3pt% (16th). These are all stats that are associated more with guard play than big men. For whatever reason, the guard play isn't living up to expectations for UNC this season. One area of strength for the Carolina guards is that they are allowing opponents to hit only 29% of their 3s. Well done! (Let's hope that doesn't revert back to the mean). Anything positive for the Tar Heels, you ask? Uh...remember when you retired Coach K?
Big 12: Tuesday Truths Celebrates “Tortilla Tuesday”
Shout out to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who are one bad possession against Iowa St. from being tied for first in the Big 12. After losing their coach and best player in a matter of minutes at Houston, in a building where Houston had not lost in a long time, the Red Raiders went to the locker room, drank a bit of Michael's Secret Stuff (that’s a Space Jam reference) and came out swinging against a top 3 team in the nation. The swingiest of swings was shooting 40% from 3 on 30 attempts—you can shoot below 50% on the road against the best defense in the country and win if you shoot that well from 3. The Red Raiders made 12 threes while the Cougars only attempted 14. It seems that Texas Tech has unlocked the simple secret to beating a team with a years-long home win streak that also fields the best defense in the country: just make all of your 3s. Duh.
Big East: Rising Like a Blue Jay from the Ashes
Are the Blue Jays back? Since losing by 24 to Georgetown before Christmas, Creighton has won 9 of 10 and doing it with the third-best offense in the conference. The Jays are leading the league with a 57.6 effective shooting percentage. Would you believe that a big part of that offensive success is due to their 7-foot center? Since the Georgetown loss on Dec. 17, Ryan Kalkbrenner is averaging 20 points a game. Over the past 3 games, the big man is shooting 82% (28/34) on 2s. (Unrelated: does anyone else think Steven Ashworth looks like Edward Norton?)
Big Ten: I Was Wrong About Purdue
In my season preview, I named Purdue as the potential conference disappointment. My reasoning was that Zach Edey would be too large of a loss (literally and metaphorically) for Purdue to overcome, and that the Boilermakers would finish lower in the conference standings this season. Not only are they winning without Edey at a high rate, but apparently the Boilermakers are having no trouble making up for his 2 point shooting either. As of right now, Purdue is actually shooting much better from 2 this season (57%, first in conference) than they were last season with Edey (53%). Somehow, Matt Painter's team is hitting 2s at a higher rate without the giant presence of Edey in the paint. However, the absence has been felt on the defensive end. The Boilers are currently allowing 54% on 2s from opponents, as opposed to 47% with Edey. Even in light of that, they are only one game back from first in the Big Ten and on their way to a top 3 seed in March. Kudos, Painter and crew.
SEC: Classic Cal
In March 2013, Coach John Calipari and UK were coming off a 2-game losing streak. The Wildcats were 20-10 and looking like a team on the wrong side of the bubble. The 'Cats had suffered blowout losses to Florida and Tennessee on the road, and had just lost by double digits again to both Arkansas and Georgia, who were both mid-tier SEC teams that season. With all hope basically gone, UK and Cal welcomed the nationally ranked Florida Gators (11th in the polls, 2nd in KenPom) to Rupp Arena and squeaked out a 61-57 victory. Hope was restored in the fanbase. The resume isn't terrible; perhaps the Cats can get a bid with a couple wins in the SEC tournament?
UK followed up the Florida win with a 26-point loss to Vanderbilt in the first round of the SEC tournament. That loss was then followed by the infamous first round NIT loss to Robert Morris. A similar thing happened with Cal and Kentucky in the 2024 season. Coming off a one point loss to LSU in which the Tigers erased a 17-point deficit for the win, UK went on a five game win streak, closing out the regular season by beating Tennessee on the road—a Vols team who would grab a 2-seed and go all the way to the Elite 8. That was the last win of the season for UK, who followed the UT win with a 10 point loss to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament. That loss was then followed by the infamous loss to JAck Golke and the Oakland Golden Grizzlies.
The reason I mention these instances is to say that Arkansas' win over UK on Saturday night should not be too surprising, least of which to Kentucky fans. As a fanbase who experienced the highs and lows of Calipari as coach for 15 seasons, UK fans should have been well aware that there was always a possibility Cal would pull out a huge win in an otherwise underwhelming season to restore hope. It would not be the first time.
He pulled out the magic one last time at Rupp Arena, this time as the opposing coach. UK fans are left shaking their heads on the wrong end of a familiar scene; Arkansas fans are left wondering if this is the turnaround moment of the season, or just another big win preceding a devastating loss. One thing both fanbases can say now that the game is over: "That's just classic Cal."